Western Provinces Set To Drive GDP Growth in Canada

Canada’s modest GDP growth forecast will outperform that of the U.S.  We should expect to see a continued influx of U.S. companies as growth-oriented organizations look for new markets in stable economies.  I’ve heard from several U.S.-based staffing providers who see Canada as their next target for international expansion.  Are you prepared for increased competition?

GDP Forecast 2012 % Change

Canada overall 2.5 Modest growth expected. Challenges: government stimulus spending is winding down; record household debt levels, high food and gas prices and a cooling housing market.
Alberta 3.3 Heavy oil output ramping up.  Demand for technical, scientific and legal professionals will remain strong as the province’s economy continues to grow and diversify. “Alberta Innovates” initiative is providing funding to a wide variety of knowledge-intensive industries, including health, energy and the environment.
Saskatchewan 3.3 Oil well drilling & natural gas production increases.  Agriculture hit by poor spring conditions but fueled by strong growth in agriculture bio-tech sector.
British Columbia 3.1 Mining & mining support services (engineering, legal), natural gas export to Asian markets, software, film industry.
Manitoba 2.7 Utilities (construction & energy export), service sector expected to outperform (finance, insurance, real estate)
Newfoundland & Labrador 2.5 Mining & related construction, offshore oil, housing market fuelled by strong employment numbers and rising income
Quebec 2.5 Aerospace manufacturing, mining, technology
Ontario 2.2 Service sector growth (finance, retail, wholesale trade).  Manufacturing will benefit from tax reforms.  Auto manufacturing expected to jump following the Japan crisis.
Prince Edward Island 2.1 Food manufacturing, wind power research & manufacturing, pharma and medical manufacturing increase.
New Brunswick 2.0 Potash expected to double. Non-durable goods production increases. Challenge: NB is most vulnerable to U.S. exports (over 85% of exports are U.S. bound) and high Canadian dollar placing more pressure on outsourced call centre sector. Local talent not keeping up with technology sector demands.
Nova Scotia 1.9 Manufacturing stabilized & poised for growth in international export sectors. Finance, real estate & insurance remain strong – partially attributed to “jobsHere” initiative.

Source: Scotiabank Group Global Economic Research, July 2011


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